{"id":11136,"date":"2020-12-30T17:32:50","date_gmt":"2020-12-30T23:32:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=11136"},"modified":"2020-12-30T17:32:50","modified_gmt":"2020-12-30T23:32:50","slug":"comparing-cash-flow-valuations-on-big-5-tech-and-value-tech","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=11136","title":{"rendered":"Comparing Cash-Flow Valuations on Big 5 Tech and Value Tech"},"content":{"rendered":"

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The spreadsheet is internal and draws a comparison of the Top 5 Tech names in the SP 500 versus the 1990’s growth giants or what is called today, “value” Technology.<\/p>\n

The big 5 are still within their trading ranges that peaked in early September ’20 (September 2nd to be exact) but I wanted to make the comparison with this article<\/a> written in mid-June ’20 and see if there were any material changes.<\/p>\n

The first major observation is that Apple’s valuation expansion continued, as EPS estimates haven’t changed much since the October ’20 earnings release. This article<\/a> written in mid-August demonstrates how Apple’s valuation has expanded while EPS has remained relatively constant since October earnings.<\/p>\n

The other Big 4 maintain the same approximate valuation as they did when they were ramping this summer.<\/p>\n

Value Tech remains value tech as Intel has really cheapened up, understandably so. Most readers probably know of Intel’s issues with 9 and 7 nanometer and how Intel has fallen behind AMD in processing and manufacturing.<\/p>\n

Intel spends 50% of their roughly $35 billion in cash-flow on “capex” i.e. building fabs.<\/p>\n

Intel’s expected revenue estimates in 2021 and 2022 are actually lower than what’s expected in 2020. Here’s how the current estimates look:<\/p>\n