![\"\"](\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/fwd4qtreps12420.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nHere is a quick look at the “forward 4-quarter EPS” number which Refinitiv provides in “This Week in Earnings” but you can also calculate it yourself from the quarterly bottom-up estimates from the various Refinitiv reports.<\/p>\n
Note that since July 31 (far right of spreadsheet) there have been only two weeks in the last 20, where there was a sequential decline in the SP 500 EPS value. That continues to be highly unusual. In “normal” markets there is a general erosion in the forward 4-quarter estimate from the start of the new quarter until the new quarter.<\/p>\n
Here’s a quick summary of the new metrics:<\/p>\n
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- The forward 4-quarter EPS value this week was $160.40 versus the $160.08 last week.<\/li>\n
- The PE ratio is 23x, still lofty for an expected 4% average growth rate in SP 500 earnings for both calendar 2020 and 2021.<\/li>\n
- The SP 500 earnings yield is 4.34%, a 6-week low from the high on 10\/31 of 4.84%.<\/li>\n
- The Q3 ’20 “bottom-up” SP 500 quarterly estimate was $32.91 on September 30th, and $39.42 as of Friday, December 4th, 2020.<\/li>\n
- The calendar 2020 SP 50 estimate was $125 on June 30 ’20, but is now roughly $138.00 today.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
What’s interesting about the 2020 calendar year SP 500 EPS estimate, is that almost precisely when the “extra” stimulus benefit ended in late July’20, the 2020 SP 500 EPS estimate began to increase rapidly.<\/p>\n
With the mainstream media and others screaming for additional fiscal stimulus, the SP 500 numbers are telling a different story.<\/p>\n