{"id":10448,"date":"2020-07-17T12:39:08","date_gmt":"2020-07-17T18:39:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=10448"},"modified":"2020-07-18T07:05:52","modified_gmt":"2020-07-18T13:05:52","slug":"sp-500-weekly-earnings-update-forward-earnings-curve-moving-the-right-way-still","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=10448","title":{"rendered":"SP 500 Weekly Earnings Update: Forward Earnings Curve Moving the Right Way (Still)"},"content":{"rendered":"

The “forward 4-qtr” estimate actually moved higher this week versus last week, coming in at $143.25 versus $142.98 from last week. This covers the period, Q3 ’20 through Q2 ’21.<\/p>\n

The big change looking at IBES by Refinitiv’s “Earnings Scorecard” was the improvement in expected Financial sector revenue growth for Q2 ’20, from -7% on July 1 ’20 to -2.4% as of July 17th, 2020.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, so far anyway, Financial sector EPS did not change similarly, and in fact worsened, from an expected -47.7% as of July 1 to -51.7% as of July 17th, 2020, with many of the big Financials already reporting this week.<\/p>\n

SP 500 Forward Earnings Curve:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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click to open \/ enhance \/ expand<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

Readers should note the steady improvement in the sequential and 4-week rate of change, both moving in a positive direction.<\/p>\n

The Health Care sector has had the sharpest improvement in expected EPS growth over the last three weeks, with Street consensus expecting -15.1% on July 1, ’20 and that number has improved already to -8.8% as of July 17th.<\/p>\n

I wondered if that was Johnson & Johnson’s report early this week that boosted that sector improvement, with the JNJ beat-and-raise.<\/p>\n

Summary \/ Conclusion: <\/strong><\/em>The forward earnings curve data continues to show slow, steady improvement. It’s not particularly exciting or fascinating, but if you look at the above spreadsheet, the revision patterns are unmistakable.<\/p>\n

From a trading perspective, the Nasdaq-100 reversal on Monday into an “outside day” has many nervous about large-cap tech, and you should be. There is a good chance we could see a change in market leadership, maybe sooner than we think.<\/p>\n

IBM reports Monday night after the bell. The stock hit an all-time-high in April, 2013 and has been much lower ever since. Can Arvind Krishna turn IBM around with the RedHat merger ? There’s a chance.<\/p>\n

More on next week’s earnings this weekend.<\/p>\n

Take everything written today with a substantial grain of salt and healthy skepticism. The markets change quickly.<\/p>\n

Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The “forward 4-qtr” estimate actually moved higher this week versus last week, coming in at $143.25 versus $142.98 from last…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[179,91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10448","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forward-sp-500-earnings-curve","category-weekly-earnings-update"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10448","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10448"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10448\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10454,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10448\/revisions\/10454"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10448"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10448"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10448"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}