{"id":10320,"date":"2020-06-20T14:15:47","date_gmt":"2020-06-20T14:15:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=10320"},"modified":"2020-06-20T14:15:47","modified_gmt":"2020-06-20T14:15:47","slug":"sp-500-earnings-weekly-update-forward-revisions-continue-to-portend-positively","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=10320","title":{"rendered":"SP 500 Earnings Weekly Update: Forward Revisions Continue to Portend Positively"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Here&#8217;s a quick rundown of the weekly stats:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>SP 500&#8217;s &#8220;Forward 4-quarter estimate&#8221; ended this week at $128.34 vs $128.45<\/li>\n<li>Remember on July 1 the forward estimate will &#8220;roll&#8221; from the period covering Q2 &#8217;20 to Q1 &#8217;21, to Q3 &#8217;20 &#8211; Q2&#8217;21. (See the forward estimate below for that bucket&#8217;s &#8220;forward 4-qtr estimate&#8221;, which is currently $143.20.)<\/li>\n<li>For the 9th straight week, the &#8220;average&#8221; expected SP 500 earnings growth for both 2020 and 2021 is 4%. That hasn&#8217;t changed since mid-April &#8217;20.<\/li>\n<li>What the simple average tells me is that the relationship between the 2020 and 2021 SP 500 estimates has not changed.<\/li>\n<li>The expected 2020 SP 500 EPS is still hovering around $125, which has been stable for 5 weeks.<\/li>\n<li>The expected 2021 SP 500 EPS of $163.99 is still above the 2019 final EPS print of $162.93. I think that&#8217;s important &#8211; no one else really does, though.<\/li>\n<li>\u00a0 The &#8220;rate of change&#8221; continues to improve for SP 500 earnings. Here&#8217;s a look at the SP 500 &#8220;forward earnings curve&#8221;.<\/li>\n<li><\/li>\n<li>\n<figure id=\"attachment_10321\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-10321\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?attachment_id=10321\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-10321\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-10321\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500fwdepscurve61920-300x151.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"151\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500fwdepscurve61920-300x151.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500fwdepscurve61920-768x386.png 768w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500fwdepscurve61920-1024x514.png 1024w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500fwdepscurve61920.png 1135w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-10321\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">click to open \/ expand \/ enhance<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>(Source data: IBES by Refinitiv, 618\/20)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em><strong>Summary \/ conclusion: <\/strong><\/em>The SP 500 rise 1.8% this week and corporate bond returns improved this week, both of which are positive for capital markets. The SP 500 earnings revisions continue to bode well for &#8220;expected, future returns&#8221; for the SP 500, but that isn&#8217;t a prediction, simply an observation.<\/p>\n<p>The SP 500 earnings yield continues to sit at depressed levels at 4.14%, but if we plugged in next quarter&#8217;s &#8220;forward 4-quarter estimate&#8221; of $143.20, the SP 500 earnings yield jumps to 4.6% versus the 4.1% today.<\/p>\n<p>Nike (NKE) and Accenture (ACN) report this week, and then FedEx (FDX) and Micron Technology next week. Nike will give is a look into China.<\/p>\n<p>All of this can change very quickly, and it&#8217;s one opinion, so invest according to your own financial profile.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Here&#8217;s a quick rundown of the weekly stats: SP 500&#8217;s &#8220;Forward 4-quarter estimate&#8221; ended this week at $128.34 vs $128.45&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10320","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-weekly-earnings-update"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10320","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10320"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10320\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10329,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10320\/revisions\/10329"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10320"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10320"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10320"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}