{"id":10307,"date":"2020-06-12T23:10:16","date_gmt":"2020-06-12T23:10:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=10307"},"modified":"2020-06-12T23:10:16","modified_gmt":"2020-06-12T23:10:16","slug":"sp-500-earnings-first-sequential-improvement-in-fwd-4-qtr-estimate-since-january-20","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=10307","title":{"rendered":"SP 500 Earnings: First Sequential Improvement in Fwd 4-Qtr Estimate Since January &#8217;20"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The &#8220;forward 4-quarter&#8221; SP 500 estimate this week came in at $128.45 versus $128.32 from last week, for the first sequential improvement in the &#8220;forward 4-quarter estimate&#8221; since the week of January 17, 2020.<\/p>\n<p>The forward 4-quarter estimate covers the period from Q2 &#8217;20 through Q1 &#8217;21,<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the last 5 weeks <em><strong>e<\/strong><strong><em>x<\/em>pected Q1 &#8217;21<\/strong><\/em> SP 500 y\/y EPS growth rates:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>6\/12\/20:<\/strong><\/em> +11.6%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>6\/5\/20:<\/strong><\/em> +11.4%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>5\/29\/20:<\/strong><\/em> +12.1%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>5\/22\/20:<\/strong><\/em> +12.0%<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>5\/15\/20:<\/strong><\/em> +11.9%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>What&#8217;s a little more interesting is that Consumer Discretionary &#8211; roughly 10% of the SP 500 &#8211; has seen it&#8217;s expected growth rate jump from 57% as of May 15th to 80% as of June 12th.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the spreadsheet data on the calculation:<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_10308\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-10308\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?attachment_id=10308\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-10308\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-10308\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500fwd4qtrest61220-300x27.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"27\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500fwd4qtrest61220-300x27.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500fwd4qtrest61220-768x70.png 768w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500fwd4qtrest61220-1024x94.png 1024w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500fwd4qtrest61220.png 1376w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-10308\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Click to open \/ enhance \/ expand<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Look for &#8220;seq % chg in bp&#8217;s&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>The Forward Earnings Curve Is Still Improving:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_10309\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-10309\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?attachment_id=10309\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-10309\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-10309\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/fwdearningscurve61220-300x157.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"157\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/fwdearningscurve61220-300x157.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/fwdearningscurve61220-768x401.png 768w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/fwdearningscurve61220-1024x535.png 1024w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/fwdearningscurve61220.png 1066w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-10309\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">click to open \/ enhance \/ expand<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Note the 2nd row of data: the sequential improvement occurred for every quarterly bucket this past week.<\/p>\n<p>The PE ratio&#8217;s are now correct. Last week, an observant reader checked the math on the PE&#8217;s and they were not right. One of the cells on the spreadsheet had locked the cell for an earlier SP 500 close. (Operator error &#8211; not blaming the spreadsheet.) The problem has been fixed.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Q3 &amp; Q4 &#8217;20 &#8211; expected EPS and revenue growth:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_10312\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-10312\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?attachment_id=10312\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-10312\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-10312\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/q3q420SP500EPSrevyy61220-300x234.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"234\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/q3q420SP500EPSrevyy61220-300x234.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/q3q420SP500EPSrevyy61220.png 560w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-10312\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">click to open \/ expand \/ enhance<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Isolating expected Q3 and Q4 &#8217;20 SP 500 EPS and revenue growth rates, it looks like the bottom or nadir was late May &#8217;20 for Q3 &amp; Q$ &#8217;20, with slow improvements since.<\/p>\n<p>Q4 &#8217;20 estimated revenue growth might turn positive in the next 3 &#8211; 4 weeks if the trend continues.<\/p>\n<p>The Street is focused on Q2 &#8217;20 and the earnings that start in less than a month. Let&#8217;s look beyond that and see what we can see. That&#8217;s what the above table shows.<\/p>\n<p>Take all this with a grain of salt. It can all change tomorrow.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The &#8220;forward 4-quarter&#8221; SP 500 estimate this week came in at $128.45 versus $128.32 from last week, for the first&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[179,243,91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10307","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forward-sp-500-earnings-curve","category-sp-500-forward-estimate-rate-of-change","category-weekly-earnings-update"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10307","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10307"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10307\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10313,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10307\/revisions\/10313"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10307"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10307"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10307"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}