{"id":10291,"date":"2020-06-05T22:00:28","date_gmt":"2020-06-05T22:00:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=10291"},"modified":"2020-06-05T22:00:28","modified_gmt":"2020-06-05T22:00:28","slug":"sp-500-earnings-update-2021-sp-500-eps-still-above-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?p=10291","title":{"rendered":"SP 500 Earnings Update: 2021 SP 500 EPS Still Above 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>So far anyway, although there is another 4 weeks until Q2 &#8217;20 earnings start, here is how 2019 &#8211; 2021 SP 500 EPS look:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>2021:<\/strong><\/em> $164.00 (current estimate for full-year 2021 SP 500 EPS)<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>2020:<\/strong><\/em> $125.48 (current estimate)<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>2019:<\/strong><\/em> $162.93 &#8211; actual<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I&#8217;ve written the last 6 weeks that i felt it was important that the SP 500 500 estimate for 2021 remain above 2019&#8217;s actual $162.93.<\/p>\n<p>So far, that is the case.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;-<\/p>\n<p>Here is the &#8220;rate of change&#8221; for the forward SP 500 earnings curve:<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_10292\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-10292\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/?attachment_id=10292\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-10292\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-10292\" src=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500EPSrateofchg6520-300x173.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"173\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500EPSrateofchg6520-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500EPSrateofchg6520-768x443.png 768w, https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/SP500EPSrateofchg6520.png 984w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-10292\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">click to open \/ enhance \/ expand<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>What&#8217;s interesting about this week&#8217;s data is not only do the revisions continue to be &#8220;less negative&#8221; but both the 2020 and 2020 annual estimates saw a positive revision for the week.<\/p>\n<p>Haven&#8217;t seen that in about 3 months.<\/p>\n<p>Averaging the 2020 and 2021 SP 500 full-year EPS estimates, the 4% average growth rate has been constant now for 14 straight weeks.<\/p>\n<p>The 23x multiple for 2020 doesn&#8217;t look so great for the SP 500, but the 17x multiple for 2021 looks better.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Summary \/ conclusion:<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0 The revision data for the SP 500 continues to be a plus for the market, although it&#8217;s hard to comprehend the price action of +10% for the SP 500&#8217;s return in the last 3 weeks being all due to earnings. A lot of positives this week, with the Treasury yield curve action, the action in banks and airlines, etc.<\/p>\n<p>More to come this weekend, probably on Sunday.<\/p>\n<p>As always, thank you for reading.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>So far anyway, although there is another 4 weeks until Q2 &#8217;20 earnings start, here is how 2019 &#8211; 2021&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[210,91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10291","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sp-500-estimate-revision-data","category-weekly-earnings-update"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10291","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10291"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10291\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10295,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10291\/revisions\/10295"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10291"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10291"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fundamentalis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10291"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}